U.S. Chamber economist: Get ready for another recession - Tampa Bay Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicts the current economicc downturn will endaround September, but the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quicklyy as it usually does after a recession, Regalias said. Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becaused of thefederal government’s huge budgef deficits and the massive amount of dollarss pumped into the economy by the Federalo Reserve, he said.
If this stimulus is not unwoundr once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvementf in the housing markegt andbusiness investment, he said. “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middlee ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almostr every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt he noted. The chances of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernankd is reappointed chairman of theFederall Reserve, Regalia said. If President Barackl Obama appoints his economic advisefr Larry Summers to chairthe Fed, that would signalo the monetary spigot would remain open for a longert time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamq administrationis “not something the markets want to Regalia said. Obama has declined to say whether he willreappoing Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of small business owners expect the recession to last at least another two years, according to a surveh of Intuit Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own businesw to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on theifr own abilities, but bearish on the factorsa they can’t control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketingt for Intuit Employee Management Solutions.
“Evehn in the gloomiest economy there are opportunitiesto seize.” A separatwe survey of small business ownere by Discover Financial Services foun d that 57 percent thought the economy was gettin g worse, while 26 percent thought the economy was improving. More than half planned to decrease spending on business development in the nextsix months.